Analysis - Child Care Access and Inclusivity in Manitoba

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Analysis - Child Care Access and Inclusivity in Manitoba

As of November 2025

Manitoba entered the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care (CWELCC) Agreement in 2021 with a stated goal of building a stronger and more responsive system that ensures high-quality, affordable, and accessible services for all Manitoba families.

Under the terms of the CWELCC Agreement, Manitoba agreed to increase the net number of regulated not-for-profit spaces by 23,000 for children under age seven by March 31, 2026.

Additional information on how we modeled child care accessibility and space allocation in Manitoba can be found within the full report under Methodology and Assumptions.

Heat map of Manitoba child care coverage

While Manitoba’s CWELCC target represents the total expansion committed to by the Province of Manitoba (the Province), it does not show how access differs across Manitoba’s communities. To provide this context, in Dashboard 1 we produced a heat map of child care coverage that shows how this varies by region.

Our analysis compares the number of open child care spaces as of November 30, 2025, and projected open spaces in 2031, with the population of children in each area. We estimated the number of additional spaces needed to meet Manitoba’s CWELCC commitment of 23,000 spaces (38%) and a coverage benchmark of 59% of the population under age seven. Although a 59% coverage-based target is used in other provinces, Manitoba has not committed to a coverage-based target under CWELCC. We used a 59% coverage rate for illustrative purposes only.

The heat map demonstrates the type of analysis that can be generated using the data available to the Department. The analysis also incorporates internal assumptions about how far families may be willing to travel to obtain child care. As a result, the map may not reflect the actual distribution of spaces in each area. Therefore, these results are intended for general understanding. They are not Manitoba’s official forecasts or commitments. Further details on the coverage rate calculations can be found within the full report under Section 2.5 and under Methodology and Assumptions.

INSTRUCTIONS: Using the filters on the left – select the preferred YEAR and COVERAGE RATE.

To view coverage in a specific AREA you can enter the first three digits of the POSTAL CODE in the "Postal code search” bar or the community in the "Community name search" bar. Then hover over the map to see the percentage of coverage and the number of spaces needed to meet the selected coverage rate (for example 23,000 spaces or 59%).

To clear the search and reset the map of Manitoba click on the eraser at the end of the search bar.

Alternatively, you can navigate the map of Manitoba using your mouse, touchpad, or cursor. Clicking on any outlined area will automatically zoom in. To zoom out, use the mouse, touchpad, or cursor and click anywhere outside the Manitoba boundary.

Sources: Manitoba Child Care Online (MCCO), ELCC Space Tracker, Population Census (Statistics Canada), Population Estimates (Manitoba Bureau of Statistics), and Postal Code Conversion File (Statistics Canada)

*We converted Manitoba’s target of 23,000 net new spaces under the CWELCC Agreement into a coverage rate of 38% for children under age seven at the start of the Agreement.

Progress toward 23,000 child care spaces

At the start of the Canada Wide Early Learning and Child Care (CWELCC) Agreement in 2021, the Department stated it had 23,089 licensed not-for-profit child care spaces for children under age seven. To assess progress toward the creation of 23,000 additional spaces, we reviewed a listing of all opened or committed projects as of November 30, 2025. Under the CWELCC Agreement, both open spaces (those already operational and receiving funding to provide child care services) and committed spaces (those not yet providing services but with approved funding for construction or renovation) are eligible to be included in the target.

As shown in Dashboard 2, as of November 30, 2025, the Department had opened 5,419 licensed not-for-profit spaces and committed to an additional 6,127 spaces since the start of the CWELCC Agreement. To reach the goal of creating 23,000 additional spaces by March 31, 2026, the Department must commit to 11,454 additional spaces.

Our audit found that without substantial new space commitments, the Department is likely to fall short creating of 23,000 additional spaces by March 31, 2026.

INSTRUCTIONS: Hover over each date to view additional information on the Department's progress towards 23,000 additional child care spaces.

Source: Departmental Master Space Tracker. Opening balance (23,089) provided by the Department.

Projected child care spaces

Licensed childcare projects in Manitoba typically take 18 months to four years to become fully operational. Using this timeline, we projected when the open and committed spaces as of November 30, 2025 would be operational through to 2031 (Dashboard 3). We then compared these projected openings to Manitoba’s CWELCC target of creating 23,000 additional spaces (38% coverage) for children under age seven, as well as a coverage benchmark of 59%.

As shown in Dashboard 3 below:

The top shaded area represents the gap between a 59% coverage ratio and the number of spaces needed to meet Manitoba’s 23,000 additional spaces.

The middle shaded area represents the gap between projected space openings and the number of spaces needed to meet Manitoba’s 23,000 additional spaces.

The bottom shaded area represents the projected number of spaces expected to open based on commitments made as of November 2025. Any space commitments that would open beyond March 31, 2031, are not shown in this visual.

INSTRUCTIONS: Hover over each date to view additional information on Manitoba’s projected progress towards opening 23,000 additional childcare spaces.

Source: Statistics Canada projected population information and the Departmental Master Space Tracker